UFC on Fuel 2
Ericsson Globe Arena, Stockholm, Sweden
Saturday, April 14, 2012
12:00 PM EST (TV Portion starts at 3:00 PM EST)
UFC returns from a relatively long hiatus (for them) with their first ever card in Sweden. The card features a number of Scandinavian fighters and is headlined by native son Alexander “The Mauler” in a light-heavyweight eliminator vs Thiago Silva. The rock solid undercard features Diego Nunes vs Dennis Siver, Brian Stann vs Alessio Sakara, and Paulie Thiago vs Siyar Bahurdazada.
BOTN preview the TV card and maked predictions on the entire 12 fight card. All lines current as of 9:00 AM EST Friday at Bovada.
Alexander Gustaffson (-230) vs Thiago Silva (+180) Light Heavyweights
Both men are very heavy handed and this one likely won’t go the full 15 minutes. Thiago Silva is a proven light-heavy that comes off a 16-month layoff thanks to a suspension imposed for submitting a false urine sample after his UFC 125 win over Brandon Vera. Silva has battled back problems throughout his career so he’s no stranger to long layoffs having fought just four times over the last four years. Reportedly, Silva is at 100% and ready to go and a win here will put him right back in the light-heavyweight picture.
Gustafsson has won five of his last six, his only career loss coming via a first-round submission to Phil Davis back at UFC 112. “The Mauler” has proven to have a strong striking game and looked impressive in his last two fights taking out a ready to retire Matt Hamill and and an over-the-hill Vladimir Matyushenko. Gustafsson reportedly also has good ground and pound but he hasn’t had to use it much at this point. With his length you would think he’d have good takedown defense. He’ll need it here vs Silva who a BJJJ black belt.
This is a huge step up for Gustafsson who will have the crowd squarely behind him. Silva has been in with the Machidas and Evans of the world and if he’s half way right, he’s the better of these two. That’s a big if. This line is a bit outrageous and if Silva were not off the layoff and the fight in Las Vegas, Silva would be favored. Silva is the more experienced and well rounded fighter. In football, don’t we take the better team on the road getting points ???
Prediction: Silva by KO in the third round
Paolo Thiago (-170) vs Siyar Bahadurzada (+140) Welterweights
Bahurduzada makes his UFC debut on a six-fight win streak in the minor leagues and gets thrown to the lions here vs veteran submission specialist Paulo Thiago. The Brazilian (Thiago) has been in with the top guys and best known for his first-round KO of Josh Koscheck in February of 2009. Thiago has lost two of three but looked sharp in his tuneup and against David Mitchell and figures to prevail here
Prediction: Thiago by submission in the second round
Brian Stann (-400) vs Alessio Sakara (+300) Middleweights
Brian “The All American” Stann is a Silver Star ex-marine that brings it every fight. He’s a decent all around fighter with power but a notch below the top guys. After knocking out Jorge Santiago and Chris Leben, he was given an eight minute dose of reality by Chael Sonnen. Sakara has been in with some good ones and is off a loss to flavor-of-the-month Chris Weidman. He’ll be life and death to survive here.
Prediction: Stann by third round knock out
Diego Nunes (-160) vs Dennis Siver (+130) Lightweights
Diego Nunes (17-2) is a Brazilian pretty boy that in our opinion is more flash than substance. After getting fat in Brazil opening his career with 11 straight wins, he’s dabbled in the WEC and UFC. His losses are to retired journeyman LC Davis and Kenny Florian and he “won” a terribly judged split decision over Mike Brown in his UFC debut. Siver is your lunchpail brawler with limitations but tons of heart. He does have stoppage power and faced much better than Nunes. Must win fight for both men.
Prediction: Siver by decision
DeMarques Johnson (+115) vs John McGuire (-145)
Prediction: McGuire by decision
Francis Carmont (-250) vs Magnus Cenenblad (+190)
Prediction: Carmont by decision
Jason Young (-185) vs Eric Wisely (+150)
Prediction: Wisely by decision
Brad Pickett (-225) vs Demacio Page (+175)
Prediction: Pickett by submission
Reza Madadi (-225) vs. Yoislandy Izquierdo (+175)
Prediction: Madadi by submission
Simeon Thoresen (-325) vs. Besam Yousef (+260)
Prediction: Thoresen by submission
Tom DeBlass (-200) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+160)
Prediction: DeBlass by KO
Papy Abedi (-250) vs. James Head (-175)
Prediction: Abedi by KO