UFC 142 (Rio): Preview and Predictions
Jan 14th, 2012 by dmack
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, January 14, 2012
After an incredible final two months of shows to close 2011, the UFC opens 2012 with UFC 142, Aldo vs Mendes. It’s a card that has been changed numerous times because of injury but the two blockbuster co-features have remained constant with Jose “Scarface” Aldo taking on Chad “Money” Mendes and Brazilian MMA legend Vitor Belfort taking on Anthony “Rumble” Johnson.
Aldo vs Mendes
Aldo defends his featherweight title against Chad Mendes is your classic striker vs wrestler matchup. Aldo was once thought to be a future face of the MMA with his vicious leg kicks and ruthless finishing skills but Aldo has been very ordinary in his last two fights, pedestrian decision victories over Mark Hominick and Kenny Florian. He’ll look to regain some swagger and lustre with a spectacular finish in his home country.
Chad Mendes is a very big featherweight out of the Urijah Faber Alpha Male stable. His striking game and boxing skills are inferior to Aldo but if “Money” can get Aldo to the mat, we could have a fight. Mendes is 11-0 but with just two knockouts, his last four fights have gone the distance. Arguably Mendes’ best win came by decision over Cub Swanson, a fighter that Aldo knocked out in eight (8) seconds with a flying knee at the start. This is a huge step up.
If he doesn’t get caught with a punch or leg kick, Mendes probably will be able to take Aldo to the mat but can he control the Brazilian ??? Taking Aldo to the mat might be where Mendes’ problems start. Aldo is a black belt in ju jitsu and his submission skills are supposedly better than his stand up. He’s never had to use his submission game before, This could be the spot.
At this writing, Aldo is a 3-1 favorite at Bovada with Mendes +230 on the takeback. The $3.00 might be a bit cheap on Aldo as he’ll be amped in front of a rabid hometown crown. Too much, too soon for the American. Aldo by second round TKO.
Belfort vs Johnson
Johnson threw a big monkey wrench in this fight by not making weight. As a matter of fact, he missed weight by an inconceivable 11 pounds weighing 197 for a match he was required to be a max 186. Johnson was reportedly just a few pound over the limit but was forced to rehydrate to be safe. He will be weighed in again on Saturday with the stipulation that he be no more than 205 for their to be a fight.
What makes this inforgiveable transgression worse is the fact that Johnson was moving up to middleweight after spending his entire career at 170. Johnson will be docked 205 of his purse and again, he’ll have to weigh in at less than 205 for there to be a fight.
Belfort is well used to facing bigger men when he crashed the UFC fourteen years ago as a 19-year-old, routinely beating up 300 ponders early in his career. Belfort is a legend and he’s not only Brazilian, he’s from Rio. In the first UFC Brazil, Belfort was asked to do the color and was bypassed on the card. Tonight, he fights in his home town and is arguably in as a good shape and sharp as he’s been in recent years.
Right now at Bovada, “The Phenom” is a -130 favorite over Johnson who is Even on the takeback. Assuming that there is a fight, you have to question whether or not Johnson trained properly and questions of his cardio and mental state are well justified. Both fighters have dynamite in their hands but Johnson also has world class wrestling game. Belfort will come out with his patented bullrush and try to end things early. If Johnson is able to withstand the onslaught and take the fight into the second and third round, he could dominate as the bigger man with his superior ground and pound. In the end, well call it Johnson by decision.
In other bouts
Sam Stout (Even) by KO over Thiago Tavares (-130)
Mike Pyle (-550) by decision over Rcardo Funch (+375)
Gabriel Gozaga (-125) by KO over Edinaldo Olveira (-105)
Terry Etim (+225) by submission over Edson Barboza (-285)
Rousimar Palhares (-650) by submission over Mike Massenzio (+425)
Erick Silva (-550) by KO over Carlo Prater (+375)