UFC on Fox 3: Preview and Predictions
May 5th, 2012 by dmack
UFC on Fox 3
Izod Canter, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Saturday, May 5th, 2012
Television Card starts at 8:00 PM EST
The UFC is back in prime time with UFC on Fox 3 featuring a lightweight title shot eliminator between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller. The night’s co-feature is a battle of middleweights as Josh Koscheck takes on Johny Hendricks. The big boys are also on the card a Pat Barry meets “Big” Lavar Johnson. Alan Belcher and submission specialist Rousimar Palhares round out the TV card.
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Don’t forget that Flooyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto are fighting tonight in Las Vegas with Sugar Shane Mosely taking on Canilo Alvarez on the undercard. It’s doing to be a great night in combat sports. BOTN takes a look at the UFC on Fox 3 card with predictions on every fight.
All odds current at Bovada as of 12:00 Noon PM EST Saturday
MAIN CARD (FOX)
Weight and Odds
Nate Diaz (156, +180) vs. Jim Miller (156, -230)
Nate Diaz has been on a roll since dropping back down to 155 including a convincing unanimous decision over Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in his last. Jim Miller is an elite guy that only real MMA aficionados appreciate, his 21-3 record blemished only by losses to Ben Henderson, Frankie Edgar, and Gray Maynard. Both fighters are BJJJ blackbelts but Milller is the superior wrestler and also has the superior ground game. Miller can’t win a stand up brawl so look for the Sparta, New Jersey native to take this to the mat and control Diaz for the majority of the 25 (headliners and title fights go five rounds) minutes.
Prediction: Miller by decision
Johny Hendricks (170.5, -140) vs. Josh Koscheck (170.5, +110)
You’ll very rarely see two more evenly matched fighters than these two and you can make legitimate cases for and against for each. Both fighters have impeccable wrestling credentials, Hendricks a NCAA champion from Oklahoma State, Koscheck a four-time All-American at Both have good standup and heavy hands. It’s easy to move right to Hendricks here based on his 12 second one-punch knockout of Jon Fitch in December and Koscheck’s flash knockout loss to Paulie Thiago back at UFC 95 but that is not the story here. Koscheck as fought EVERYONE and is vastly more experienced than Hendricks. He’ll respect the Okie’s power and figure out a way to stay out of trouble. Koscheck is reportedly rejuvenated after switching camps and will be a handful in his first fight “out of his new barn”.
Prediction: Koscheck by decision
Alan Belcher (186, +205) vs. Rousimar Palhares (186, -265)
Here is our chance to cash a ticket. Not really sure why Palhares is such a large favorite and you could also make an argument that Belcher should be a small favorite. Palhares is very very good … at one thing … Brazilians Jiu-Jitsu. The guy is a beast and a bone breaker but he’s meeting a well rounded savvy veteran that is also a blackbelt in BJJ and with much superior stand up skills. This fight might never get to the mat and even if it does, Belcher is more than able to defend himself.
Prediction: Belcher by decision
Pat Barry (244, -190) vs. Lavar Johnson (253, +155)
Pat Barry is a feel good story and a nice guy that has many people rooting for him. That said, he’s a marginally talented MMA fighter that has progressed as far as he’ll ever get. Lavar Johnson is not much more from the talent standpoint but is one tough SOB who was shot twice in the chest at a Fourth of July BBQ in 2009 and had his next fight in March of 2010. He’s the younger brother of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. With a five inch height advantage and a decided reach advantage, look for Barry to go to sleep early.
Prediction: Johnson by knockout
PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV)
Tony Ferguson (154.5, -275) vs. Michael Johnson (156, +215)
Prediction: Ferguson by knockout
John Dodson (126, -500) vs. Tim Elliott (125, +350)
Prediction: Dodson by knockout
John Hathaway (169, -230) vs. Pascal Krauss (169, +180)
Prediction: Krauss by decision
Louis Gaudinot (126, +230) vs. John Lineker (127, -300)
Prediction: Lineker by knockout
Danny Castillo (155, -120) vs. John Cholish (155.5, -110)
Prediction: Cholish by decision
Dennis Bermudez (145.5, -155) vs. Pablo Garza (145, +120)
Prediction: Bermudez by decision
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
Roland Delorme (135, +235) vs. Nick Denis (135, -285)
Prediction: Denis by knockout
Mike Massenzio (184, -125) vs. Karlos Vemola (185, +105)
Prediction: Vermola by knockout