NFL Betting 2009 Week 3 Had Some Surprises
Sep 29th, 2009 by admin
The thing about sport is that it can be completely unpredictable. Unlike casino games, which function by virtue of fixed odds and a discernible house edge, sports lines and odds are only an approximation. Plus, in many cases, these guesses are modified not by events relevant to the actual contest, but by the amount action the sportsbook is getting for each competing team. Sportsbooks make a profit when action is balanced, which means that they are (generally) paying out what they took in, less the “juice”, usually a 10% surcharge on the favored team. In reality, a sportsbook that manages to hold 7% is considered very profitable, while those that hover around 4-5% start to hemorrhage money.
Now apply all of this to the NFL. Think carefully: games are more unpredictable than you think. Star players could get injured, a player could be ejected from the game, or the weather might make playing conditions less than desirable. Equally unpredictable are a sudden gust of wind on a punter’s kick, or a failed field goal attempt. All of these factors play into the final result, which in no way, shape, or form can be predicted to 100% precision by sportsbooks. Such was the case with Week 3 of the 2009 NFL Betting season.
Some Pleasant and No-so Pleasant Surprises
In an amazing turn of events, the Detroit Lions FINALLY won a game, breaking their losing streak that spanned nearly 2 seasons of regular season play. They successfully defeated the Washington Redskins 19-14, stunning gamblers who thought the game was foregone conclusion. Anyone who took the RedSkins in a parlay bet probably thought they would be making easy money, but instead, they were left speechless after the lowly Lions brought the house down with their pleasantly surprising victory. The Lions face the off kilter Steelers this weekend, in what promises to be an intense game.
Everyone knows the Jets are good: Week 2 saw them defeat the Patriots, and Week 3 was yet another victory, this time 24-17 against a struggling Tennessee Titans team. During all the sports commentators’ jockeying prior to the regular season, none of them would have predicted that the Jets would be undefeated going into Week 4. Most were heavily favoring the Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens. Of this trio, so far only the Ravens have actually panned out. The Jets continue to impress their fans and detractors: according to a Experts Poll - Click Here at NFL.com, the Jets are at a solid #5 ranking. Among fans, they stand at #4. Not bad, and definitely a pleasant surprise.
Then we have the embattled Pittsburgh Steelers, who faced high expectations at the start of this season as the defending Super Bowl champions. Last weekend, they fell victim to a tenacious Cincinnati Bengals team, who won 23-20. The Bengals are now a respectable 2-1, their only loss being to the Patriots during Week 1 play. Things aren’t so hot for the Steelers at the moment, and needless to say, bettors who had them for the win against the Bengals are still recovering from the whiplash they suffered as they watched their “easy money” bets be collected by the sportsbooks. Hats off to the Bengals, who cracked the top 15 teams ranked on NFL.com. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ performance has been a not-so pleasant surprise.
For what it’s worth, Super Bowl 43 second place finisher Cardinals haven’t been so great either. They suffered a decisive 31-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, who are contenders for the top ranked team in the league as of Week 3. Many think the Cardinals’ struggle is due in part to the “Super Bowl Curse”, which is actually a plausible theory given that the Steelers are sucking wind as well. In the NFL.com Experts Poll - Click Here, the Cards fall in at 18th place, a not-so pleasant surprise for fans, and equally not-so pleasant for sports bettors who thought more of Kurt Warner and the rest of the red birds. They definitely need some time to regroup and get back on track (before the season gets away from them).
Finally, to end on a positive note, we have the Baltimore Ravens. They entered the 2009 regular season with a reasonable amount of support from the NFL bigmouths, but most didn’t expect them to literally kick the crap out of every opponent for 3 weeks straight. Lest we forget, the Ravens were strong last year during the post season, and might have made it to the Super Bowl. While that fact can’t be changed, one thing is for sure: if they keep this pace up, they’ll certainly be contenders for the AFC championship, if not Super Bowl 44. Remember, they’ll need to stay strong through January. Sports bettors who took the Ravens haven’t been disappointed in the least: instead, they’ve left the oddsmakers at the sportsbooks bewildered and a bit humbled as we head into Week 4. Certainly a Pleasant Surprise.
In Conclusion…
Week 4 is almost here and it’s a good time to take stock of your bankroll and wagers. Analyze what’s worked and what hasn’t, and think carefully about which teams actually worth a bet. In many ways, Week 4 will be a pivotal moment for some NFL squads, especially those that are struggling coming out of the gate. For sports bettors, however, things are a bit clearer: you’ve seen 3 weeks of action and know which teams are at the top of the pile, so play it smart and made your picks accordingly. You can win some good money this weekend, and enjoy what promises to be a defining moment in the 2009 NFL regular season.